Differences

This shows you the differences between two versions of the page.

--- 0_public:macro:payrolls [2024/12/09 21:49] – removed - external edit (Unknown date) 127.0.0.1
+++ 0_public:macro:payrolls [2024/12/09 21:49] (current) – ↷ Page moved from macro:payrolls to 0_public:macro:payrolls pointnm
@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
+====== Payrolls ======
+<wrap hi>A stronger-than-expected US jobs report led the USD and US treasury yields to surge</wrap> as the data <wrap hi>raised doubts about the prospect for Fed rate cuts</wrap> anytime soon.((https://archive.ph/3BGL7#selection-1143.224-1143.384))
+The details show private payrolls rose 232k with <wrap hi>manufacturing</wrap> flat on the month, <wrap hi>construction</wrap> adding 39k, <wrap hi>private education</wrap> and health up 88k, <wrap hi>leisure</wrap> and <wrap hi>hospitality</wrap> up 49k while government payrolls rose 71k. These latter three categories continue to be the main engines of job creation in the US economy.((https://archive.ph/SAnwx#selection-1133.0-1133.307))
+Today’s US payrolls are, however, the big event of the week and a strong read could easily put markets back on a bearish track and reignite aggressive dollar buying.
+The jobs report is compiled from two separate surveys. The survey of businesses and government agencies — which produces the payrolls and wage data — illustrated surprisingly robust job growth. However, the poll of households, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate, showed employment rose a much more modest 86,000 during the month.
+The US nonfarm payrolls report showed employers quickened the pace of hiring, with 336,000 jobs being added in September — more than double economists’ estimates.
+Payrolls are expected to rise by just under 200k, but once again are likely to be concentrated in just three sectors – local government, leisure and hospitality, and private education and healthcare services. https://think.ing.com/articles/key-events-in-developed-markets-next-week2803/
+===== Non-Farm Payrolls =====
+Im November wurden demnach 199.000 neue Stellen (außerhalb der Landwirtschaft) gemeldet. Erwartet worden waren im Durchschnitt „nur“ 180.000, nach 150.000 im Oktober.
+Nonfarm payrolls is an employment report released monthly, usually on the first Friday of every month, and heavily affects the US dollar, the bond market and the stock market.
+   * heavily affects the US dollar, the bond market and the stock market
+   * If the results come in higher than expected, this tends to have a strengthening effect on the USD whereas, if the result comes in lower than expected, the USD will often weaken. https://admiralmarkets.com/education/articles/forex-strategy/nfp-trading-1#:~:text=The%20effects%20of%20the%20NFP,the%20USD%20will%20often%20weaken.
+The most recent non-farm payroll data is still extremely positive although when you dig into the data, it's really a lot more part-time jobs putting into the economy than full-time.
+A survey last week from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas — a widely followed quarterly report — showed that most oil executives polled now expect drilling and fracking expenses to climb next year. That’s sobering news in light of near-record labor costs and other expenses. Friday’s monthly US payrolls report will shed further light on the state of the shale jobs market.
+Bei den sogenannten Non-farm Payrolls handelt es sich um eine monatliche Statistik, die Auskunft über die Beschäftigungszahlen in der Privatwirtschaft in den USA gibt. Sie sind auch unter dem Namen Non-Farms oder NFP bekannt.
+Die NFPs haben ihren Namen von den Jobs, die nicht mit in die Statistik fallen: Beschäftigte in der Landwirtschaft, Hausangestellte und Mitarbeiter von Non-Profit-Organisationen. Für gewöhnlich werden die Zahlen am ersten Freitag eines Monats bekannt gegeben und haben einen großen Einfluss auf viele bedeutende Märkte.
+Zur Veröffentlichung der Non-Farm Payrolls gehören neben den Beschäftigungszahlen auch die Arbeitslosenquote, Details zu den Sektoren, der durchschnittliche Stundenlohn sowie die Bereinigung früherer Versionen. Auch diese sind für die Märkte von großer Bedeutung.
+US employment unexpectedly surged in September, illustrating a durable labor market and bolstering the case for another Federal Reserve interest-rate hike.
+WATCH: Mohamed El-Erian says the surge in payrolls is “good news for the economy,” but “bad news for markets and for the Fed.”
+The surprising vigor of the job market suggests companies remain confident about their sales prospects.
+Historically, September payroll figures can be a tad quirky, given the need for the BLS to adjust for end-of-summer layoffs in the leisure and hospitality sector and a surge in hiring related to the start of the new school year.
+Something is likely to break. That’s how Mohamed El-Erian put it, saying the jobs data are consistent with calls for a recession. “When you fall behind right at the beginning of an inflation cycle, you pay the price when you get to the last mile,” the Allianz chief economic adviser said.
+Piling on: Larry Summers said the report suggests the Fed's rate hikes aren’t working. “I see more dry tinder for financial flames than I’ve seen in quite a long time,” the former Treasury Secretary said.
+https://www.ig.com/at/trading-glossar/non-farm-payrolls-definition
+{{tag>forecasting}}