Outlook

According to Blanch, the oil outlook is currently dominated by four forces:¹⁾

• Persistently low inventories: Across the board, the oil complex is experiencing significantly low inventory levels, a situation that is contributing to upward pressure on prices.²⁾
• OPEC+ production decisions: The output cuts enforced by OPEC+ countries are serving to tighten supply in the global market.³⁾
• Geopolitical flashpoints: Escalating tensions in key regions, notably involving Iran, Russia, and Venezuela, not only threaten supply chains but also, paradoxically, stimulate oil demand through longer trade routes and reduced refining capacities due to infrastructure attacks.⁴⁾
• Economic growth: Robust growth figures are painting a picture of stronger-than-anticipated demand, particularly for the upcoming summer driving season.⁵⁾