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PMI
Der globale Fertigungssektor – ein wichtiger Gradmesser für die Rohstoffnachfrage – schloss das Jahr 2024 mit enttäuschenden Zahlen ab. Der JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) Global Manufacturing PMI fiel im Dezember weiter in den kontraktiven Bereich und rutschte unter seinen gleitenden Dreimonatsdurchschnitt. Das deutet auf eine anhaltende Schwäche bei Produktion und Auftragseingängen hin. Die Entwicklung signalisiert einen verhaltenen Start ins Jahr 2025 und wirft Fragen zur Nachfrage nach zentralen Industriemetallen wie Kupfer, Aluminium und Nickel auf.1) 2)
Recent S&P PMI surveys indicate a sharper-than-expected drop in US manufacturing activity for August.3)
This decline, coupled with similar trends in other major energy-consuming countries, underscores a pessimistic outlook on energy consumption.4)
Further evidence of decreased fuel demand is provided by contractionary Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) and slowing industrial output rates globally.5)
S&P Global manufacturing PMI
he ISM manufacturing index surprised everyone by moving into growth territory for the first time since late 2022 with production jumping, new orders rising and inflation pressures increasing. Markets interpreted that as reducing the chances of meaningful Fed rate cuts, but construction was much weaker and there are a lot of jobs numbers still to come. 6)
IHS Markit and JPMorgan Chase’s snapshot of the health of manufacturing around the world, based on surveys of multiple purchasing managers on their activity. A number above 50 signals expansion.
By moving into expansion territory the survey offers hope that the manufacturing sector is finally stabilising after nearly 18 months of contraction and follows on from an upside surprise in Chinese manufacturing PMIs over the weekend. This may well be the key reason why the ISM performed so well since, as the chart below shows, the regional surveys we got beforehand fell.7)
China is the largest manufacturer of autos, smartphones and other goods the world over so this index provides a key insight into the heart of global production.
The Caixin China Services Purchasing Managers’ Index
released Dec. 5 rose to a three-month high 51.5 in November from
a reading of 50.4 in October. A reading above 50 indicates growth,
and the uptick put China’s services sector in expansionary
territory for 11-straight months.
In den USA war der Einkaufsmanagerindex ISM der Industrie von 47,8 Punkten im Vormonat auf 50,3 Punkte gestiegen und liegt damit erstmals seit September 2022 wieder über der Schwelle von 50 Punkten, was auf eine expandierende Industrie hinweist.8)
The Caixin manufacturing purchasing managers index, which largely reflects activity of small and medium-sized Chinese private enterprises, came in at 51.4 in April, signaling the fastest expansion since February 2023. It’s now been in expansion territory since November.
bloomberg.com/world-economic-indicators-dashboard
