LME aluminium was steady this morning after Trump announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on all imports of steel and aluminium into the US. The US imports significant volumes of aluminium and steel from Canada. In 2023, net US aluminium imports were 44% of its total consumption, with Canada the biggest supplier, accounting for 56% of imports. Meanwhile, around 30% of steel imports into the US arrived from Canada. Only last week, Trump delayed plans to hit Canada and Mexico with general import duties of 25%.^{1) 2)}

• the largest producer and consumer of crude oil.^{3) 4) 5)}
• producing around 13.5 million barrels per day of oil (2024)^{6) 7)}

The U.S. is, for this reason, still a big importer of crude oil. Gulf Coast refineries optimized for the years when Venezuela was a reli able producer import heavy, sour crude barrels even as U.S. light, sweet barrels and refined products flow in the other direction.⁸⁾

The U.S. is a huge hydrocarbon producer. It is also a gigantic con sumer. It has been just 15 years since terminals being built to im port liquefied natural gas to fore stall a shortage were mothballed, with some since converted into ex port terminals for booming LNG de mand — especially since Russia’s in vasion of Ukraine. And it was as recently as 2020 that the U.S. be came a net petroleum product ex porter for the first time since the 1940s. The fracking technology rev olution, not aggressive trade tac tics, is to thank for the boost in do mestic energy production.⁹⁾

WTI 2025 and 2026 values are trading around the USD 65/bbl level, which is not far from levels that producers need to profitably drill a new well. Both the Dallas Fed Energy Survey and the Kansas Fed Energy survey show that producers on average need USD 64/bbl.¹⁰⁾

In the US, heavy grades of crude oil are produced in the Gulf of Mexico, where production has been stagnating.¹¹⁾

We analyzed seven Great Lakes states with connected electricity grids—Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. For decades, these states have bought and sold electricity in regional markets, benefiting from the abundance of reliable power gener- ated from sources like coal, natural gas and nuclear. But through a com- bination of state mandates and util- ity company decisions, all of them are moving away from those reliable sources toward unreliable wind and solar power, in pursuit of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions.^{12) 13)}

On balance, the United States still imports more than it exports because domestic demand exceeds supply and many American refineries can more easily refine the heavier oil produced in Canada and Latin America than the lighter crude that oozes out of the shale fields of New Mexico, North Dakota and Texas.

The shutdown curbed California’s ability to import gas from Texas, its biggest supplier.

The data comes as the US prepares to begin its soybean and corn harvest, signaling another tough year for American farmers who already are struggling with drought and fierce competition from Brazil and Russia. Last year, extremely low water levels on the Mississippi stranded more than 2,000 barges, crippling commerce on the vital waterway.

Already, refining is a tougher business than it was a couple of years ago, partly because U.S. demand for diesel has weakened.^{14) 15)}

Most oil produced in the United States is, in the telling of industry experts, akin to a light beer, while the crude imported from Canada and Mexico is more like a thick molasses. Refineries are set up to use a combination of the light and heavy oils.^{16) 17)}

The average price of regular gasoline on Friday was $3.11 a gallon nationally, according to AAA, the motor club, in line with prices this time last year. In the Midwest, gasoline is generally cheaper than the national average.^{18) 19)}

“This is probably due to the fact that Canada is by far the US’s most important oil supplier,” Carsten Fritsch, commodity analyst at Commerzbank AG, said.^{20) 21)}

Last year, the US sourced more than 4 million barrels of its daily crude oil imports from Canada, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration.^{22) 23)}

“This corresponded to more than 60% of total US crude oil imports. Mexico accounted for around 470 thousand barrels per day or 7% of daily US crude oil imports,” Fritsch said.^{24) 25)}

Oil from Venezuela could be considered a substitute due to its similar quality and geographical proximity.^{26) 27)}

Brazil and Guyana are also considered possible suppliers of the heavy sulphur-rich oil required by US refineries.^{28) 29)}

“If this also affects crude oil, around 4.5 million barrels or almost 70% of daily US crude oil imports would become significantly more expensive suddenly,” Fritsch said.³⁰⁾

“It is impossible to source this volume elsewhere in the short term, especially as the oil from Canada and Mexico is urgently needed by US refineries due to its special characteristics (density, sulphur content) and cannot be replaced by light US shale oil,” according to Fritsch.³¹⁾

Shipments from Canada and Mexico can’t be replaced^{32) 33)}

Oil imports from these two countries, especially Canada cannot be replaced in terms of quality or quantity, according to experts.^{34) 35)}

“Canada is therefore by far the US’s most important oil supplier, Mexico ranks second,” Carsten Fritsch, commodity analyst at Commerzbank AG, said.^{36) 37)}

The United States is the world’s largest oil producer, but the country’s refineries are designed to turn a mix of different types of oil into fuels like gasoline and diesel. Roughly 60 percent of the crude oil that the United States imports comes from Canada, and about 7 percent comes from Mexico. Many refineries are set up to use those particular imports and cannot easily switch to oil from other places.^{38) 39)}

Among those likely to take a hit if Mr. Trump does not exempt fossil fuels are Canadian oil producers and U.S. refiners, particularly those in the Midwest that process a lot of Canadian oil and lack a ready substitute. American consumers in regions that depend on oil from Canada also could see slightly higher prices at the pump, particularly if fuel makers were to respond by cutting production. Gasoline prices in the Midwest could climb 15 to 20 cents a gallon, with more muted effects in other parts of the country, said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at Oil Price Information Service.^{40) 41)}

The US could have also reduced its oil product exports. In the first eleven months of last year, the US exported an average of just under 3.2 million barrels of refined petroleum products per day.^{42) 43)}

Nearly 1.3 million barrels of diesel and almost 800 thousand barrels of gasoline were accounted for per day.^{44) 45)}

“The US has also become an important diesel supplier for Europe after diesel shipments from Russia ceased due to the EU import ban in early 2023. For this reason, import tariffs would lead to a shortage of diesel supply in Europe,” Fritsch said.^{46) 47)}

In the US—the world’s largest reserve holder and second-largest coal consumer after China—about 92 percent of its coal13 is responsible for 50 percent of all power generation in the coun- try. ¹⁾

Gas futures have tumbled by more than half in the past three months. That’s spurred a pullback in drill-rig deployment, specifically in the Haynesville shale basin, which straddles Louisiana and East Texas, EQT Chief Executive Officer Toby Rice said in a Bloomberg TV interview. EQT is focused on the Marcellus shale in Appalachia.

Specifically, the US is 100% reliant on imports for at least 12 key minerals deemed critical by the government, with China being the primary import source for many of these along with many other critical minerals.

These are all on the US government’s critical mineral list which has a total of 50 minerals, and the US is 50% or more import reliant for 43 of these minerals.

Some other minerals on the official list which the US is 100% reliant on imports for are arsenic, fluorspar, indium, manganese, niobium, and tantalum, which are used in a variety of applications like the production of alloys and semiconductors along with the manufacturing of electronic components like LCD screens and capacitors.

Some other minerals on the official list which the US is 100% reliant on imports for are arsenic, fluorspar, indium, manganese, niobium, and tantalum, which are used in a variety of applications like the production of alloys and semiconductors along with the manufacturing of electronic components like LCD screens and capacitors.

Its seven (7) existing terminals can process as much as 86mn tonnes a year, enough to satisfy the combined gas needs of Germany and France. Five (5) more projects under development will add another 73mn tonnes a year and the energy department is reviewing proposals for at least another sixteen (16).⁴⁸⁾

The shutdown of Freeport LNG in 2022 due to a fire is a case in point. While the plant made up about 10% of all European imports at a time when the region was desperate for supplies, the biggest market impact was seen in US gas futures, which initially tumbled 17% in one day and continued to be volatile for months.

The majority of US natural gas imports come from Canada via pipeline. LNG imports come mainly from Trinidad, Egypt, and Nigeria and are gaining as a percentage of total imports. ²⁾

I grow soybeans and corn. The U.S. leads the world in the produc- tion of both. More than half the na- tion’s soybeans and about 15% of its corn is destined for international markets, according to the U.S

Dec'23: Last year (2022), all U.S. agricultural exports were worth $196 billion. More than half of this value came from soybeans, corn, beef, dairy products, cotton and tree nuts such as almonds, pistachios and walnuts. The top 10 markets for our products reveal the amazing diversity of our customers: China, Mexico, Canada, Japan, the European Union, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, Colombia and Vietnam.