A stronger-than-expected US jobs report led the USD and US treasury yields to surge as the data raised doubts about the prospect for Fed rate cuts anytime soon.¹⁾

The details show private payrolls rose 232k with manufacturing flat on the month, construction adding 39k, private education and health up 88k, leisure and hospitality up 49k while government payrolls rose 71k. These latter three categories continue to be the main engines of job creation in the US economy.²⁾

Today’s US payrolls are, however, the big event of the week and a strong read could easily put markets back on a bearish track and reignite aggressive dollar buying.

The jobs report is compiled from two separate surveys. The survey of businesses and government agencies — which produces the payrolls and wage data — illustrated surprisingly robust job growth. However, the poll of households, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate, showed employment rose a much more modest 86,000 during the month.

The US nonfarm payrolls report showed employers quickened the pace of hiring, with 336,000 jobs being added in September — more than double economists’ estimates.

Payrolls are expected to rise by just under 200k, but once again are likely to be concentrated in just three sectors – local government, leisure and hospitality, and private education and healthcare services. https://think.ing.com/articles/key-events-in-developed-markets-next-week2803/

Im November wurden demnach 199.000 neue Stellen (außerhalb der Landwirtschaft) gemeldet. Erwartet worden waren im Durchschnitt „nur“ 180.000, nach 150.000 im Oktober.

Nonfarm payrolls is an employment report released monthly, usually on the first Friday of every month, and heavily affects the US dollar, the bond market and the stock market.

• heavily affects the US dollar, the bond market and the stock market
• If the results come in higher than expected, this tends to have a strengthening effect on the USD whereas, if the result comes in lower than expected, the USD will often weaken. https://admiralmarkets.com/education/articles/forex-strategy/nfp-trading-1#:~:text=The%20effects%20of%20the%20NFP,the%20USD%20will%20often%20weaken.

The most recent non-farm payroll data is still extremely positive although when you dig into the data, it's really a lot more part-time jobs putting into the economy than full-time.

A survey last week from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas — a widely followed quarterly report — showed that most oil executives polled now expect drilling and fracking expenses to climb next year. That’s sobering news in light of near-record labor costs and other expenses. Friday’s monthly US payrolls report will shed further light on the state of the shale jobs market.

Bei den sogenannten Non-farm Payrolls handelt es sich um eine monatliche Statistik, die Auskunft über die Beschäftigungszahlen in der Privatwirtschaft in den USA gibt. Sie sind auch unter dem Namen Non-Farms oder NFP bekannt.

Die NFPs haben ihren Namen von den Jobs, die nicht mit in die Statistik fallen: Beschäftigte in der Landwirtschaft, Hausangestellte und Mitarbeiter von Non-Profit-Organisationen. Für gewöhnlich werden die Zahlen am ersten Freitag eines Monats bekannt gegeben und haben einen großen Einfluss auf viele bedeutende Märkte.

Zur Veröffentlichung der Non-Farm Payrolls gehören neben den Beschäftigungszahlen auch die Arbeitslosenquote, Details zu den Sektoren, der durchschnittliche Stundenlohn sowie die Bereinigung früherer Versionen. Auch diese sind für die Märkte von großer Bedeutung.

US employment unexpectedly surged in September, illustrating a durable labor market and bolstering the case for another Federal Reserve interest-rate hike.

WATCH: Mohamed El-Erian says the surge in payrolls is “good news for the economy,” but “bad news for markets and for the Fed.”

The surprising vigor of the job market suggests companies remain confident about their sales prospects.

Historically, September payroll figures can be a tad quirky, given the need for the BLS to adjust for end-of-summer layoffs in the leisure and hospitality sector and a surge in hiring related to the start of the new school year.

Something is likely to break. That’s how Mohamed El-Erian put it, saying the jobs data are consistent with calls for a recession. “When you fall behind right at the beginning of an inflation cycle, you pay the price when you get to the last mile,” the Allianz chief economic adviser said.

Piling on: Larry Summers said the report suggests the Fed's rate hikes aren’t working. “I see more dry tinder for financial flames than I’ve seen in quite a long time,” the former Treasury Secretary said.

https://www.ig.com/at/trading-glossar/non-farm-payrolls-definition