Europe is attracting much more LNG and the European price has overtaken the Asian price now…Typically it’s the other way,” Hardy said.^{1) 2)}

Hardy described a highly unusual situation in the gas market where the typical seasonal price patterns have been reversed.^{3) 4)}

Normally, in a market driven by winter demand, gas prices would be higher in the winter months and lower in the summer months.^{5) 6)}

This is because demand for heating purposes surges during the winter, driving up prices.^{7) 8)}

“We’ve got a very unusual situation where the gas market is backward going into summer, so the price for summer is above the price for January next year. That’s just counter-intuitive to a winter-based market,” he said.^{9) 10)}

However, Hardy noted that the current market is behaving counter-intuitively, with summer gas prices exceeding those for the following January.^{11) 12)}

This inversion of the normal price curve suggests that there are factors at play that are disrupting the usual supply and demand dynamics of the gas market.^{13) 14)}

These factors could include geopolitical tensions, disruptions to supply chains, changes in storage levels, or speculation about future demand.^{15) 16)}

He noted that approximately 200 million tons of new LNG supply are expected to enter the market between 2028 and 2031.¹⁷⁾