The supply expectations are related to the virtual certainty that OPEC+ will extend its voluntary production cuts into the second half of the year. If it does not, prices will plummet and OPEC+ knows this.¹⁾

All well-known and widely discussed information is already reflected in stock prices. This is a basic tenet of market theory and commonly referred to as market efficiency. So if you see a headline about a stock you follow, there’s no use trading on that information — it’s already priced in. You missed the move. ¹⁾

Yes, the market is tightening, but this was largely expected following the rollover of OPEC+ cuts. Geopolitical risks have certainly grown, particularly when it comes to Israel and Iran, which has left the market nervous. However, any premium priced into the market will eventually erode in the absence of any escalation.²⁾

Although clearly, markets are of the view that we will see Iran retaliating for the attack on its embassy in Syria.³⁾

The lack of any significant price reaction following Iran’s recent attack on Israel is largely due to a large risk premium already having been priced into the market.⁴⁾