Die Staaten der Opec+ förderten im Oktober rund 40 Millionen Barrel am Tag, das entspricht rund 40 Prozent der globalen Rohölproduktion.

The amount of spare production capacity OPEC is sitting on also provides some comfort to the market. OPEC sits on more than 5m b/d of spare production capacity, so in the event of a supply disruption, there is sizeable capacity to make up for any disruptions.^{1) 2)}

In the event that we see disruptions to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, this spare capacity wouldn't prove very helpful, given that most of OPEC’s spare capacity sits in the Persian Gulf and this supply would have to move through the Strait of Hormuz.^{3) 4)}

The desired price level for OPEC producers is above $80 per barrel, which is the breakeven price.^{5) 6)}

Unfortunately, the market will have to rely on action from OPEC+.

The $80-per-barrel mark is largely the breakeven for many oil-producing countries in the Middle East.⁷⁾

In addition to OPEC’s healthy spare capacity, an increase in US production has further alleviated the fear premium in the global crude oil market. The US produces about 13% of the global crude oil compared to OPEC and OPEC+ share of 25% and 40% respectively.⁸⁾

The group consists of 13 developing nations whose economies rely on oil export revenues including Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Libya, Nigeria, Algeria, Ecuador, Indonesia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela, and Angola. ¹⁾

Seven of the 10 largest oil exporters in the world are OPEC members. Russia, Norway, and Mexico are the largest exporters outside the cartel. ²⁾

Since the collapse of the fixed oil-price system administered by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in the mid-1980s, markets have set prices; OPEC’s influence lay in adjusting production.

north, central & south african, middle east countries

OPEC daily oil production © Bloomberg 2023

The 23-country OPEC+ coalition, which controls about half of global oil supply,

In recent years, it struck an alliance with a group of Russia-led oil producers, together known as OPEC+, expanding the cartel’s influence. The 23-member group accounts for more than half the world’s oil production.

13 opec member countries

10 non-opec member countries

don't want oil price too high (recession) or too low

Back in 2016, OPEC was a wounded animal. The shale revolution, which turned the US into the world's largest oil producer, had dented the market power of Saudi Arabia and its allies. Other non-OPEC nations, from Brazil to Russia, were free riding on the cartel’s efforts to keep oil prices higher than a free market would have dictated. Pundits rushed to write OPEC obituaries.

Table 2.6 lists the top oil reserve holders by country. OPEC nations hold the vast majority of the world’ s oil supply by a long shot, with 70 percent of total reserves.5 Yet OPEC nations only account for 42 percent of world production.6

The market estimates Saudi to cut the selling price for Asian buyers due to softer oil prices and higher inventories; however, a large price cut could give the impression of abundant supplies.

The new combination directly controlled 50% of the global oil market, up from about one-third before the deal.

Together, the 10 non-OPEC members of the OPEC+ alliance pumped nearly 15% of the world’s crude oil last month (May 2023) — not an insignificant amount.

Demand for crude from the producers that form part of the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) – as OPEC+ is officially known – has become more relevant to assessing market balances, according to one of the sources.⁹⁾

The OPEC+ group, which includes OPEC members and 10 non-OPEC producers led by Russia, is now a more powerful force on the market and a key factor in global supply than OPEC was before the alliance was created at the end of 2016, to address the market and price slump of 2015-2016 following the glut in 2014.¹⁰⁾

OPEC+ holds a 41% share of global oil supply, compared to just 27% for OPEC only as of end-2023 when Angola left the OPEC cartel, per Reuters calculations.^{11) 12)}

• officially known as Declaration of Cooperation (DoC)

The withdrawal reduces the Saudi-led group – which has been trimming production to shore up oil prices – to 12 members but will have a limited market impact due to Angola’s dwindling output.