Vortexa suggests that non-sanctioned shadow vessels could continue carrying Russian oil to China, as the shorter distance means the number of tankers required is relatively small.^{1) 2)}

There are estimates that the Russian shadow fleet ships a little more than 80% of Russian seaborne crude oil exports. And while the true size of the shadow fleet is unknown, there are estimates that it could be as many as 600 tankers. S&P Global estimates the size of the tanker fleet at 586 vessels, which suggests that around 25% of the shadow fleet has been sanctioned. This could put around 700k b/d of Russian crude oil at risk. Losing this volume would wipe out the surplus that we expect for the global oil market this year.³⁾

According to shipping experts, the fleet of old ships is more prone to spillage and less safe.⁴⁾

HAMBURG/ROSTOCK (dpa-AFX) - Nach Recherchen der Umweltschutzorganisation Greenpeace transportieren weltweit 192 marode Tanker russisches Rohöl. 171 Schiffe davon seien in den vergangenen zwei Jahren einmal oder öfter durch die deutsche Ostsee und das Seegebiet der Schifffahrtsroute Kadetrinne in der Mecklenburger Bucht gefahren.⁵⁾

The estimated size of the fleet varies depending on selection criteria, but industry insiders told this month’s GTR Asia event in Singapore there are more than 600 such vessels in operation – equivalent to around 13% of all oil tankers worldwide.^{6) 7)}

“Diese Schrott-Tanker müssen als Erstes auf die EU-Sanktionsliste”, fordert Thilo Maack, Meeresbiologe von Greenpeace. “Die Bundesregierung muss schnell handeln und eine drohende Katastrophe verhindern.” Auf der Liste von Greenpeace stehen unterschiedliche Schiffstypen mit einer Länge von 183 bis 275 Metern. Das älteste Schiff ist 27, das jüngste 16 Jahre alt.⁸⁾

The average age of crude oil tankers was under nine in 2021, but has risen to nearly 17 this year, Greenpeace says.^{9) 10)}

It describes one vessel, Chilli, which last month transported a shipment of Russian oil to Saudi Arabia. The tanker was built in 2004, and has a history of inspection problems, including corrosion on its hull and defects with a safety system designed to prevent explosions.¹¹⁾

Shadow-fleet ships are often run by untraceable shell companies, lacking known industry-standard insurance while sailing under the flags of countries with poor standings for maritime safety oversight.¹²⁾

Finally, the ‘dark fleet’, one that operates without identification systems and engages in other deceptive shipping practices while moving wet cargo, including oil, such as ID and location tampering. Windward has identified approximately 1,100 dark fleet vessels.¹³⁾

The shadow fleet that Russia has assembled to trade oil in circumvention of sanctions consists of approximately 1400 vessels. By the end of 2023, they accounted for more than 65% of shipments.¹⁴⁾

For several months now, the US has been imposing sanctions against these vessels and their owners. In just the last few weeks, dozens of ships sailing under the flags of Liberia and the Marshall Islands have been blocked.¹⁵⁾

The shadow fleet, however, is not unique to Russia. Countries like Iran and Venezuela have similarly employed such vessels to circumvent sanctions and sustain their oil exports. Estimates place the size of this shadow fleet between 600 and 1,400 tankers, accounting for approximately 20% of the global crude oil tanker fleet, Allianz SE said.¹⁶⁾

One major concern is the condition of these vessels. Many are likely poorly maintained and may not have undergone the necessary inspections to ensure their seaworthiness. These tankers frequently engage in hazardous practices such as ship-to-ship transfers in open waters and deactivating AIS transponders to conceal their movements and identities.¹⁷⁾

While there is evidence of capacity restraints on the fleet trading Urals, the fleet trading Russia Far East grades (ESPO blend, Sokol, Sakhalin) is mostly separate, trading solely on the Russia Far East-to-China route. It's unlikely this fleet will face constraints as a result of sanctions enforcement.