Angola’s Sonangol sold four cargoes as much as $1.50 a barrel above offer prices over the past week, with three of the shipments likely going to Europe. Those cargoes would usually be destined for Asia — the atypical trade pattern reflects some of the market’s sharp swings this week.

If the situation deteriorates, it may lead to some disruptions and longer shipping times in the short term – but where there is flexibility, it's expected that we'd see shifts in trade flows. This could include US LNG which was destined for Asia being rerouted to Europe, and Middle Eastern (Qatari) LNG moving into Asia rather than Europe. In doing this, these flows will avoid the Red Sea and will not have to take the longer route around South Africa.